September 14th

Intercensal Estimates

- Every year population data changes (ie births, deaths, and people moving), the Census only occurs in years ending with zero. We know the numerator, but make an estimate of the denominator.
- The ‘guess’ would be located during the middle of the year (July 1st) which is being studied. The middle of the year population is what we use to determine the population level for that year.
- Census bureau produces population estimates for July 1 of every year (including Census years). The use of vital registration (ie. Births and death) and other quality information is what we use to estimate population data for a given year.

- Are used for:
o Federal money allocations
o Denominators in vital rates
o Control totals for surveys (especially the A.C.S. aka American Community Survey)

• Population Change

o PT+1=PT+ [Births-Deaths] (natural increase; comes from vital registration)

(+) [Moves from other countries- Moves to other countries] (international migration; comes from ICE records aka Immigration Customs Enforcement & ACS data)
(+) [Moves from other US places- Moves to other US places] (domestic net migration; comes from IRS tax returns)

Census tries to do these estimates by:
- Year
- County
- Age Group
- Sex
- Race
- Hispanic/non-Hispanic